As expected, the first couple days of Spring Training were dominated by discussions of the Sosa trade. Most seem to be taking a tack along the lines of ‘last year’s done, we’re ready to play together, we feel good for 2005.’ Nice to see Mark Prior talking bluntly about The Trade and how it was ’something that needed to be done’ to make things right for all–that he’s kept his down-to-earth bulldog mentality bodes well. He also has the best quote so far:
We have another stereo system that nobody knew about at the other end
While there’s been lots of rah-rah-team sort of talk, little has drifted into assessments of how well the 2005 Cubs will pitch, hit, and field–except for sportswriters. And I think I must agree with many who say that the subtraction of Sosa (and Alou and Clement, for that matter) has dropped the talent level somewhat: the moves subtracted a lot of HR and RBI (even if Jeromy Burnitz does prove his ‘04 numbers weren’t a Coors-induced mirage) without doing anything to address last year’s weaknesses in the bullpen and defense.
However, while the expected run production (and prevention) as of right now will probably drop…well, baseball teams in October nearly always look a bit different than the ones in the Arizona and Florida sun. Oakland GM Billy Beane has said on several occasions that he uses April and May to assess his team, June and July to find new pieces, and then pushes towards the World Series in August and September; he’s been fairly successful, and most other winning teams have had similar patterns over the years. Perhaps the greatest advantage of moving Sosa (and Alou) is that with a happier clubhouse and fewer big egos to step around, Dusty Baker and Jim Hendry may have more freedom to adjust the lineup and rotation, call up minor leaguers, and trade for other pieces that can be mixed and matched throughout 2005 to produce more wins.
Besides, with all the recent steroids messes, run production might drop off across the board, leaving the pitching-strong Cubs in a good position…